On May 13 Professor Wereley used optical feature tracking to estimate the volume flow of oil from the on-going BP Macondo oil field spill.  Several other independent scientists also performed similar measurements at about the same time.  These several measurements were all in the ballpark of 20,000-100,000 barrels per day--greatly in excess of the estimates provided by BP of 5,000 barrels per day.  The unforeseen effect of these first independent flow rate calculations was to bring the issue of oil flow rate to the fore.  Wereley was subsequently appointed to a government task force called the Flow Rate Technical Group (FRTG) to calculate an official government flow rate estimate.  The group arrived at a final estimate of 35,000-60,000 barrels of oil per day after requesting and receiving better quality and longer videos of the oil flow.  In conjunction with the Department of Energy and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, the FRTG arrived at a final total crude oil release estimate of 4.9 million barrels—over 200 million gallons or nearly 20 Exxon Valdez-type accidents.  This presentation/discussion will center on those calculations, their limitations, their improvement and their future uses in this on-going disaster.

Part 3: Miniseries on Energy Impact

• cap & trade

Part 2: Miniseries on Energy Impact

Governments are currently considering policies that will limit greenhouse gas concentrations, including negotiation of an international treaty to replace the expiring Kyoto Protocol. Designing effective climate change mitigation and adaptation measures requires rigorous, comprehensive, detailed analyses of the response of climate dynamics to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations, and of the potential impacts of those climate changes on natural and human systems. Using a high-resolution climate modeling system, we find that the potential impacts of very high greenhouse gas concentrations are largest where critical thresholds are crossed, with fine-scale climate processes amplifying the climate change – and therefore the impacts – in many regions. We also find that substantial intensification of hot extremes could occur within the next 3 decades, below the 2 ˚C global warming target currently being considered by policy makers. However, the critical importance of energy consumption to human development and well-being creates a tension for both development priorities and climate policy. Indeed, we find that closing the gap in energy consumption between rich and poor populations via intensive consumption and emissions profiles causes global warming of 1.75 to 4.75 ˚C, along with seasonal warming that exceeds two standard deviations of interannual variability over most land areas. This level of climate change is independent of any future emissions by the 28 countries that exhibit the highest levels of well-being at present, suggesting that simultaneously ensuring human well-being and avoiding dangerous climate change requires intensive efforts to enable low-carbon energy consumption.

No video or speaker slides available

• climate change
• energy efficiency
• energy ethics and equity
• energy for the developing world
• environmental justice
• greenhouse gases
• impacts
• modeling
• social change

Andrew Revkin, editor of Dot Earth, will moderate a discussion with leaders from industry about the opportunities for businesses and countries to participate in the energy economy and the "energy innovation ecosystem" that will be needed to stimulate, support, and sustain innovation in the energy sector. This panel takes place in conjunction with the Annual Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP) Research Symposium which this year has the theme of “Creating a Sustainable Energy System for the 21st Century and Beyond”.

• cap & trade
• clean tech
• climate change
• economics
• energy and climate policy
• energy policy
• green jobs
• industry expertise
• renewable energy
• smart grid
• social change

Abstract:
What public policies can prevent dangerous climate change and catalyze sustainable global prosperity? Hal Harvey, CEO of the ClimateWorks Foundation, will discuss the urgency of mitigating climate change, how to craft and implement approaches to the problem that achieve results, and the costs of delaying action.

The ClimateWorks Foundation supports public policies that prevent dangerous climate change and catalyze sustainable global prosperity. The foundation’s goal is to limit annual global greenhouse gas emissions to 44 billion metric tons by the year 2020 (25 percent below projections) and 35 billion metric tons by the year 2030 (50 percent below projections). These ambitious targets require immediate and widespread adoption of smart policies that rapidly improve energy efficiency, scale up the deployment of clean energy technologies, and halt the destruction of tropical forests. The ClimateWorks Network is a global family of organizations that focus on effective policies in the nations, regions, and economic sectors responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions—thus increasing our chances of success.

• climate change
• economics
• energy policy
• environment
• green jobs
• non-governmental organizations